Pedestrians walk past clocks in the Canary Wharf financial, shopping and business district in London, U.K., on Tuesday, June 21, 2016. Financial and related services accounted for 11.8 percent of U.K. economic output, or 190 billion pounds ($278 billion), in 2014, and quitting the EU could cost as many as 100,000 jobs in the sector by 2020, according to industry group TheCityUK. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
© Bloomberg

Net migration into the UK reached a record high of 335,600 last year, helping the overall population rise to 65.1m, according to official statistics.

The rise in net migration, which has been a sensitive subject in the run-up to the UK’s referendum on its EU membership, made up the largest part of the country’s 0.8 per cent rise in overall population.

Meanwhile, natural population growth — the difference between the number of births and deaths — dropped to the lowest level in nine years, at 171,800.

The number of deaths rose (up 52,400 on the previous year) and births fell (down 1,900). The rise in deaths was partly due to flu outbreaks in early 2015. The flow of immigrants into the UK helped bolster the numbers of those in their 20s and 30s in an otherwise ageing population.

The figures published on Thursday were in line with the projections the Office for National Statistics published last month.

Across the country population growth varied substantially, reinforcing patterns that have been seen over the last decade. Many inner London boroughs saw rapid rises in population, while some rural areas of Scotland and Wales saw their populations decline.

The release of the figures had been scheduled since last year and therefore was not subject to the usual “purdah” restrictions, which prevent government departments from releasing sensitive information during a referendum campaign.

Around the country there was no clear positive correlation between high levels of recent population growth and support for Britain to leave the EU.

In fact, some of the areas that are most Europhile, according to analysis by Dr Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia, are also those that had seen the most rapid population growth.

Of the four home nations, England experienced the fastest population growth overall, at 0.86 per cent, with the population reaching 54.8m. Wales saw the slowest growth, of just 0.23 per cent.

But population growth across individual local areas varied substantially.

The five fastest growing areas were all in London, seeing between 2.6 per cent and 8.5 per cent population growth over the year to June 2015. In contrast, 35 per cent of local authorities in Scotland and Wales saw their populations decline.

The differences are even starker looking back further. Tower Hamlets, which was the second fastest growing local authority last year, has seen the fastest growth over the last ten years. There are now 38 per cent (or 82,000) more people living in Tower Hamlets than there were in 2005.

In contrast, Ceredigion in rural Wales saw the largest population decline last year and now has 1 per cent fewer people than ten years ago. It is one of 20 local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales to have seen its population fall since 2005.

The area that has seen the most rapid population decline over the last ten years is Kensington and Chelsea. The resident population of Kensington and Chelsea has declined 6 per cent since 2005 — 11,000 fewer people now live there.

But in the last year Kensington and Chelsea’s population rose almost 1 per cent. This continues a turnround that began a year earlier, following eight years of consistent decline.

Concern has been raised in the past about the large number of “buy-to-leave” overseas investors in the prime London market turning Kensington and Chelsea into a “ghost town”.

However, Fionnuala Earley of Hamptons International said data from their branches on the importance of overseas buyers and sellers was not consistent with the changing population figures.

“The data can be volatile, but there has been no noticeable declining trend in overseas buyers nor an increase in overseas sellers after mid-2013,” she said.

The number of overseas buyers did drop towards the end of 2015 and into 2016 as uncertainty about the prospects for property price growth and the EU referendum increased.

Dependency ratio grows slightly less quickly than expected

The average age of the UK’s population was 40 in 2015, up from 38.7 years in 2005.

There are now 11.6m people aged 65 and over — 2m more than there were ten years ago. This group make up 17.8 per cent of the UK population, compared with 16.0 per cent in 2005.

The UK’s old-age dependency ratio — the number of people of working age (20-64 years) for each person over 65 — now stands at 3.3. This is lower than in 1991, when the figure stood at 3.7.

However, the dependency ratio has grown slightly less quickly over the past 15 years than was expected in 2001. At that time, the ONS projected that the dependency ratio in 2015 would be 3.2.

The larger than expected number of working-age migrants who have arrived in recent years has helped to suppress the dependency ratio.

“As growth in the supply of workers to produce goods and services slows, this will reduce economic growth and tax revenue, “said David Sinclair, director of the International Longevity Centre. “But government spending will need to rise in order to meet the health, care and pensions needs of a rising older population.”

Ben Franklin, also of the ILC, added: “Migration could help mitigate the fiscal pressures a rapidly ageing population creates.”

But more migration is not the only option. “More must be done to increase workforce participation for the elderly” said Simon Ross of Population Matters, a think-tank. “Work should be designed to enable older worker participation, to increase automation and flexible and home working.”

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